STRATEGY TRUMPS TRUMP

The outcome of the upcoming presidential election will be determined, at its most fundamental level, by the prevalence and intensity of two forces: Trump Derangement syndrome on the one side and perception/recognition of cognitive decline and incompetence of Biden on the other. Ben Shapiro posits that while many people vote based on policy, the majority do it on personality, and he may be right. Both of the likely candidates at this time (and this may change) are tainted by corruption. To me it’s clear that Biden is far the more sullied in this regard, but presenting the evidence for this assertion goes beyond the scope of this dissertation. Besides, while both sides of the aisle demonstrate a willingness to distort reality in favor of tribal leanings, those still wedded to the idea of Biden as the lesser evil have carried it to such an extreme that many of their arguments resemble parody rather than serious critique.

The flurry of charges against Trump, while largely born of TDS and the radical progressivism infecting the Democrat Party, may also be politically astute if the goal is to try to assure a Trump candidacy; his bump in the polls on the right with each new indictment attests to that. With a weak and failing choice such as Biden, a Democrat strategy of bolstering your opponent’s candidate in the primary who is perceived as the most vulnerable in the general election is just smart politics. The move both energizes the Right to support him in the primary while satisfying the Left that hates him—it’s a no-brainer. But Republicans, by placing emotion over, strategy could be playing a dangerous game.

Trump supporters don’t buy in to the vulnerability argument, or their enthusiasm for the man prevents them from entertaining the notion. But it remains a fact that the current, weak, incompetent president beat him once while hiding in the basement (arguments for “stolen election” aside). True, some things have changed. Biden is now more cognitively impaired than on the first go-around and has a track record of almost universally failed and destructive policies. More black and Latinos voters are defecting, and some election law loopholes have been closed. And Republicans now see the wisdom of fighting fire with fire when it comes to ballot harvesting. But is this enough to overcome the smoldering coals of TDS that the Democrats are forever stoking into flame? Modern-day elections are won or lost on the backs of a small cadre of voters in the center. The question is, is it good political strategy to bet on Trump?

In the interest of transparency, I must divulge I don’t like Trump, the man. I find him coarse, and narcissistic to the point that he’s quick to abandon his party when he feels it’s in his best interest. And while he has an amazingly thick skin when it comes to defending himself and his policies against the deranged Left, it’s the opposite when it comes to his perception of “disloyalty.” He’s not the most moral individual (although a saint compared to Biden) but is probably in the middle to lower third of the pack compared with politicians in general. I loved his policies and their effects in the pre-COVID era, and his perseverance in the face of strong political headwinds and an obstructive Deep State. But I’m more a fan of Ron DeSantis, who I feel has demonstrated an ability to govern soberly, without the theatrics that can alienate an uncertain independent or old-fashioned liberal, whose votes will be critical in a general election. DeSantis has been true to conservative ideals, and has had a demonstrably positive effect on the state of Florida’s economy, education, and crime which I believe will port over to the national level. I have no illusions he won’t be tarred and feathered by the progressive Left, and also no doubt the DeSantis Derangement Syndrome will be part of the lexicon should he win the White House, but it’s the swing vote that I’m interested in. I also like Vivek Ramiswamy, but have no clue how he’d fare in the national stage. I suppose I’ll miss Trump’s entertaining tweets (or X’s), but not the blood pressure-raising juvenile ones, of which there were many. Not a small factor to also consider, all the indictments will distract Trump and siphon off much-needed campaign dollars (which is their point), and while all the indictments are clearly banana republic political corruption and bad for the country, Trump is in real legal jeopardy in the Florida classified information suit due to his recorded ill-spoken remarks. Besides, it seems likely that a Washington, D.C-based jury could potentially convict for the January 6^th non-charges (look at the bogus outcome in the NY civil Stormy Daniels trial).

Of course, Trump will have my vote if he’s victorious in the primary, as current polls strongly suggest. But I can still hope that enough of the Right will come to recognize that strategy trumps emotion when trying to win elections.

THE TRUMP RUN—CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

The prevalent wisdom is that the indictment of Donald Trump occurred at this time because the Democrats hate him and are terrified of a second go in the White House. While this is true and true, I’m not alone in maintaining that the indictment is precisely timed by the Left to assist Trump in his quest for a primary win.

The dynamics of a primary election and a national one are vastly different. With Trump’s unflagging base of somewhere ~30% of Republican voters, he undeniably has an advantage going into the primary and polls support this contention. The current indictment, with all available information, is based on flimsy charges and no likely crime, much less a felony. And this isn’t my opinion, but those of more than one attorney not associated with the case. The unequal application of the law is fodder for another rant, but the obvious injustice has triggered the expected primary poll bump for Trump. While the Left in power is abysmal when it comes to governing, this incompetence does not extend to the arena of politics. A small radical contingent would never have been able to control the educational system, the culture, and then the government by planned incremental baby steps over decades without a collective sociopolitical genius that would be admirable if it weren’t so evil. So it seemed a stretch to me that they wouldn’t see the benefit this arraignment will gift Trump in the primary run. And now with the the over-the-top “let’s throw 34 felony charges at the wall and see what sticks” announcement, it became clear that my analysis was on point: They’re not even bothering to hide the politicization.

I was a Cruz man for Trump run #1, but unhesitatingly voted Trump over Hillary, correctly perceiving at worst he was the lesser of two evils. I hadn’t expected his policies to be so spot-on, nor their implementation so successful with the political headwinds he faced and an uphill climb against an entrenched, hostile Deep State. The first businessman in a long line of career politicians in the White House proved to be the recipe our nation needed. While his outsider status gave him the clarity to oppose deep-rooted corruption, his lack of political acumen coupled with an outsized narcissism only rivaled by his predecessor did not serve him well. With his frequently boorish tweets and political gaffs (possibly the biggest resulting in the loss of a Senate majority via the midterm Georgia race when he placed perceived personal disloyalty above the Party and the country), he fanned into flames an already smoldering Trump Derangement Syndrome. TDS is not just limited to the far Left—many moderate Democrats, Independents, and even some Republicans suffer from the malady. Its most important symptom is an inability to see, remember, or acknowledge his salutary policies and the attendant favorable outcomes (recall that not a single Democrat clapped during his State of the Union address when the historically low unemployment rates in minority communities were referenced). Although not the sole reason for Trump’s loss to a failing, basement-sequestered Biden on his second run, I maintain it played a major, if not the most crucial, role. Viewing the political landscape through the eyes of a Leftist (as headache-provoking as that may be), the prospect of a DeSantis (or other) candidacy is much more concerning. Trump is a known quantity, with an already failed run (fairly or unfairly) against Biden, and national polls suggest even less across-the-board popularity than in 2020. And the Leftist media benefit in eyeballs and dollars with Trump in the picture. While the indictment will energize Trump supporters and those already committed to a non-Democrat candidate, it’s not likely to swing otherwise receptive but uncommitted voters. Hanging one’s hopes on the ongoing abysmal track record of Biden’s ongoing disastrous reign of tyranny may be a fool’s game, judging by the results of the midterm elections.

I fear that in a national election a candidate with the millstone of TDS around his neck who has lost once to a doddering fool, can lose again.